Date: Nov. 24, 2016 – Units Risked/Win: 1.33 / 1 – Grade: win
Detroit Lions +1.5 (-133)
Last week we were on the Lions -5. They, as per usual, back-door covered. Barely… It took a bunch of dumb Jacksonville mistakes to allow the Lions to cover the spread in the 4th quarter. I mentioned it made us nervous backing the Lions minus points and I was right. But, in the end they won and covered.
Here we have Lions +1.5 for a reasonable price. Our numbers show the Lions as a -1 ATS favorite. Detroit has done well in the recent past when playing on Thanksgiving day versus just about anyone. Plus, this is an important game for both teams. Home field advantage should actually play a role here. The Lion are on a roll lately.
Concerns: the Vikings have a stout defense. Minnesota can score points.
Bottom line: with all that being said we feel the Lions have the edge here. They beat the Vikings in Minnesota which hasn’t happened much this year (if at all) and they have the Thanksgiving magic on their side.