Date: Nov. 25, 2016 – Units Risked/Win: 1.33 / 1 – Grade: loss
Arizona State +2 (-133)
This seems like a fairly large mismatch for the home team. Our numbers show Arizona should +5.5 home dogs in this spot. We were able to get Arizona State for +2 at -133 which is more than reasonable.
With that being said, line movements do not support this pick. “Sharp money” seems to be coming in on the home team which has driven the spread from Arizona +4 (open) to +1 (current). Not typically a good sign…
But, as usual we stick with our system and numbers and we’ll take Arizona +2.